A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
